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Understanding EV (Expected Value)

The EV percentage you see on each coin helps you understand the potential return on your bet.

What is EV?​

Expected Value represents the theoretical long-term return of a bet if you were to make it infinitely many times.

  • Positive EV (+%): Theoretically favorable bet
  • Negative EV (-): Theoretically unfavorable bet
  • Zero EV (0%): Break-even

How We Calculate EV​

In ORE Pump, EV is derived from:

  • The coin's current market cap (how much has been bet on it)
  • The total pot size
  • The odds of winning (1/25 = 4%)

The Formula​

EV% = ((Potential Payout / Your Bet) × Win Probability) - 1

In Practice​

If a coin has received less betting attention:

  • Your share of winnings would be larger
  • But the overall pot might be smaller

If a coin has received more betting attention:

  • Your share would be diluted
  • But the overall pot is larger

Reading the EV Indicator​

On each coin card:

  • Green percentage: Positive expected value
  • Red percentage: Negative expected value
  • Higher number: Stronger expected value (positive or negative)

Does EV Matter?​

Short Answer: Kind of​

EV is a long-term statistical measure. In the short term:

  • Luck dominates
  • Any coin can win
  • High EV doesn't guarantee wins

When to Consider EV​

  • If you're planning many bets over time
  • As one factor among many
  • To understand market sentiment

When to Ignore EV​

  • If you're just having fun
  • For single bets (luck matters more)
  • If other factors matter to you (coin name, vibes, etc.)

EV Strategies​

Follow the Crowd​

Bet on high-market-cap coins because:

  • Others see something you might not
  • Larger pots mean bigger potential wins

Contrarian Play​

Bet on low-market-cap coins because:

  • Less competition for winnings
  • Potentially higher EV if you win

Balanced Approach​

Spread bets across multiple coins:

  • Diversify your risk
  • Increase your chances of hitting a winner

Important Caveat​

EV is Theoretical

EV calculations assume perfect information and infinite trials. Real-world results will vary significantly in the short term.

Market Cap and EV​

The market cap bar on each coin shows relative betting interest:

  • Longer bar = more SOL bet on this coin
  • Shorter bar = less betting interest

This directly affects your potential payout if this coin wins.

Next: Reading Charts​

Learn how to interpret the price charts:

Reading Charts →